KUALA LUMPUR, Aug 23 – Malaysia palm production is expected to surpass 19 million metric tonnes (mt) in 2025 in the event of a strong La Niña, said an analyst.
Fastmarket Palm Oil Analytics senior analyst Dr Sathia Varqa said the palm production is in a high cycle now and is likely to peak between August and October this year, keeping prices under pressure.
“Palm prices are expected to remain stagnant between RM3,700 and RM3,900 per tonne on the crude palm oil (CPO) futures as the state of production will be the main price driver for the rest of this year,” Sathia said at the East Malaysia Palm Oil Forum in Kuching, Sarawak yesterday.
In his paper “Palm & Laurics Market Outlook”, he noted that exports could be lower in August and September, and pick up pace in October. Price competitiveness, a stronger ringgit and China’s domestic policies are key determinants.
Commenting on the Malaysia CPO market from January to August this year, he said the commodity showed an impressive rise in production, although it was uneven. Export rose but this was not to China, he said.
There was no major weather disruption but some plantations reported lower output from El Nino, he said, with high levies and taxes in Indonesia benefitting Malaysia.
He said palm oil recovered its competitiveness vis-a-vis bean oil.
