KOTA KINABALU, Nov 28 — Assessing Sabah’s current political landscape, tomorrow’s 17th State Election is expected to result in a coalition government, as no single party seems capable of winning 37 seats for a simple majority.
Campaigning has been intense and balanced since the nomination day on November 15, especially on social media, but some groups, particularly youths, are still undecided.
Universiti Malaysia Sabah’s (UMS) Social Sciences and Humanities Faculty deputy dean Prof Syahruddin Awang Ahmad said the intense competition and current political environment could lead to the formation of a more complex and fragile coalition government.
“A total of 596 candidates are vying for 73 seats, reflecting Sabah’s fragmented and fluid political landscape with fierce multi-cornered fights.
“There are constituencies with 14, 13, and 11-cornered contests, which are intense and extraordinary. Therefore, parties must work together to form a coalition government, but how strong such a government will be is difficult to predict,” he told Bernama.
Syahruddin expects Gabungan Rakyat Sabah (GRS) to remain the largest bloc, but noted that it will need to work closely with Pakatan Harapan and Barisan Nasional (BN), or secure the support of smaller local parties to build a stable and strong government.
Regardless of the outcome, the mandate given by Sabahans should translate into a government that focuses on issues such as political stability, the implementation of the Malaysia Agreement 1963 (MA63), economic development, and tackling illegal immigration to ensure long-term prosperity.
UMS Borneo Electoral and Geopolitical Studies Unit (GeoPES) researcher Azizan H. Morshidi believes this state election will result in a coalition government through strategic cooperation among major parties.
However, the trend of fragmentation, multi-cornered contests in many seats and fierce competition indicate that post-election negotiations will be constructive but challenging in forming the next state government.
“Smaller local parties may play a crucial role in contributing to greater unity, while issues such as family dynasties and corruption allegations can be addressed through a collective commitment to state government reforms in line with the Madani principles.
“This election sees a great challenge to pre-election alliances, with component parties leaving major coalitions, sparking fierce contests in marginal seats,” he said.
UMS senior lecturer Amrullah Maraining expects intense battles between local and national parties, each pushing its own narrative to win over voters, especially the younger generation.
Young voters will be the deciding factor for political parties, as their support is unpredictable and not influenced solely by whether a party is local or national.
He said that this group does not make decisions hastily, as they assess what candidates and parties can offer, and some may even decide at the last minute.
“The state election, which sees 596 candidates from 22 political parties contesting, should serve as a platform to demonstrate political maturity and the ability of parties to present a clear direction to the people,” Amrullah said.
Universiti Teknologi MARA (UiTM) senior lecturer Ismail Rakibe said voter behaviour trends indicate that Sabahans are now making decisions based on current issues, daily experiences, and candidate assessments, rather than ideological lines.
Given this situation, the next Sabah government will almost certainly be formed through negotiations after the results are announced, not through a single-party majority victory.
“The formation of the Sabah government will depend on negotiations between parties, discussions among major blocs such as GRS, the role of mid-sized blocs like Parti Warisan and Pakatan, as well as support from smaller parties that may become kingmakers in a hung Assembly,” he said.
GeoPES UMS chief researcher Eko Prayitno Joko emphasised the need for close cooperation between the state and Federal governments to ensure administrative stability.
In the context of a federation, a state cannot function effectively on its own; a stable and functional government requires strong cooperation between local and Federal levels.
“The main issues affecting the people must be the central focus of the new government, not merely political rhetoric,” he said.
Eko hopes the incoming government will be stable and genuinely reflect the aspirations and needs of the wider community.
He noted that this election is taking place in a more mature and dynamic environment, with increased participation of women candidates despite the intense contest, and social mobilisation remaining within a healthy democratic framework.
“There is also a clear surge in the use of social media and digital communication, especially in reaching young voters who remain undecided. However, this approach requires sensitivity as unfiltered information can affect voter literacy,” Eko said.
