bangkok, FEB 9 – Bhumjaithai and Klatham are emerging as potential coalition partners in the formation of Thailand’s next government, buoyed by their strong seat gains in yesterday’s general election, political analysts say.
They were commenting after the release of unofficial results, with Bhumjaithai Party poised to secure the top position in parliament. While the official tally is still underway, early indications suggest Bhumjaithai has gained the largest share of seats.
Stithorn Thananithichot, a lecturer at Chulalongkorn University’s Faculty of Political Science, outlined several possible coalition scenarios. In the first scenario, should Bhumjaithai emerge as the largest party, the People’s Party (PP) would likely declare its readiness to assume the role of the opposition. Bhumjaithai would then be expected to open coalition talks with Pheu Thai as its first partner, he said.
“The outcome would largely depend on how high Pheu Thai sets its conditions,’’ Mr Stithorn said. “If it imposes few or no demands, the parties could form a government quickly, with Klatham likely joining as the third partner. However, if Pheu Thai drives a hard bargain, Bhumjaithai may be forced to return to the People’s Party to dilute Pheu Thai’s negotiating power.”
He said that including the Democrat Party in such a coalition would be more difficult, as this would likely require excluding Klatham. In a Bhumjaithai–Pheu Thai–Klatham configuration, government stability would hinge on relations between the largest party, Bhumjaithai, and the party with the greatest bargaining leverage, Pheu Thai, he said.
If Pheu Thai adopts a cooperative approach and refrains from excessive demands, the coalition could endure for a full term, as all parties would benefit from remaining in government. In a second scenario, should the PP narrowly overtake Bhumjaithai to finish first, coalition negotiations would become more complicated, he said.
Unlike in the first scenario, Bhumjaithai would not readily concede defeat or accept an opposition role. The PP might then have to approach Pheu Thai, which would likely impose strict conditions. If talks failed, the PP could find itself compelled to reopen negotiations with Bhumjaithai.
Mr Stithorn warned that a coalition comprising the PP, Pheu Thai and the Democrats — without Bhumjaithai — would probably be short-lived, as it would be unlikely to gain the confidence of influential power brokers. The third and final scenario involves Bhumjaithai and the PP finishing with a similar number of seats. In this case, both parties would attempt to form rival governments, though Mr Stithorn believes Bhumjaithai would have the advantage.
“The People’s Party is unlikely to be trusted by extra-constitutional power centres,’’ he said. “Even if it managed to form a government, it would probably not last long. Most stakeholders would be happier if the People’s Party took on the opposition role.’’
Wanwichit Boonprong, a political science lecturer at Rangsit University, said that if the seat distribution remains unchanged — with Bhumjaithai finishing first, followed by the PP, and then Pheu Thai or Klatham — government formation would be relatively straightforward for Bhumjaithai.
He said Bhumjaithai could first align with Klatham and then bring in several small parties with fewer than 10 seats, such as the Thai Ruam Palang Party to secure a parliamentary majority of around 260 seats.
In this configuration, Pheu Thai would not be essential unless absolutely necessary, as the two parties compete heavily in overlapping constituencies.
Democrat Party leader Abhisit Vejjajiva said the party was prepared to serve as the opposition. Natthaphong Ruengpanyawut, leader of the People’s Party, admitted defeat, saying the outcome reflects the will of the people. – Bangkok Post
