BEIJING, May 14 – U.S. President Donald Trump on Thursday began a high-stakes summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping that could not only shape the next chapter of the bilateral relationship but also alter the trajectory of the war in Iran.
As the economic and geopolitical competition between the world’s two most powerful countries intensifies, Trump and Xi are expected to discuss a broad agenda, ranging from trade and advanced technology to Taiwan’s future and the ongoing turmoil in the Middle East.
Despite the overarching rivalry, Xi has rolled out the red carpet for Trump, whose arrival in Beijing the previous night marked the first U.S. presidential visit to China in nearly a decade.
“I think what both sides want is stability,” a senior U.S. official said.
Still, the two-day summit through Friday is fraught with uncertainties.
The U.S.-Israeli war against Iran, which led to the postponement of Trump’s original plan to travel to the Chinese capital from late March, has added to the complexity of the presidents’ interactions.
Before the conflict erupted in late February, Trump’s second face-to-face meeting with Xi since his return to the White House last year was supposed to focus primarily on the economic front, building on earlier progress in easing tensions, especially over trade.
Trump and Xi last met in October for about 100 minutes on the sidelines of a regional economic forum in South Korea, where they agreed on a one-year pause in their trade war.
The agreement included lowering U.S. tariffs on Chinese imports and delaying China’s new export controls on rare earth minerals, which are critical to the production of military equipment and many high-tech goods.
So much has changed since then, with Trump, who last visited China in November 2017 during his first term, struggling to secure a deal with Iran to end their fighting that has paralyzed traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a major shipping route through which about 20 percent of the world’s crude oil normally flows.
Causing commodity prices to soar and sparking concern about a global economic slowdown, the war has further weakened Trump’s hand in negotiating with China and other countries, after the Supreme Court in February ruled against many of his sweeping tariffs.
Recent remarks by Trump have suggested that he will most likely seek Xi’s help in pushing Iran, a strategic partner of China, to accept a U.S. peace proposal and reopen the vital waterway.
Although China has long purchased most of Iran’s oil exports and has influence over Tehran, it remains unclear to what extent, if any, Xi will speak about cooperating with Trump on the Middle East, given that Beijing basically views the war as a U.S. problem.
For Xi, one concrete result he is hoping for in the realm of geopolitics may be a shift in the U.S. position on Taiwan, a self-ruled island that China claims as part of its territory.
In a phone call with U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio in late April, China’s top diplomat Wang Yi warned that Taiwan is “the biggest risk” in relations between the world’s two largest economies.
Wang’s caveat signaled China’s strong determination to bring up Taiwan — which Trump had said he did not discuss with Xi during the previous summit — when they meet this time.
Xi may urge Trump to stop U.S. arms sales to Taiwan, which China seeks to annex, by force if necessary.
Before the summit, a separate senior U.S. official told reporters that U.S. policy toward Taiwan remains intact and will not change.
But speculation is rife that Xi could subtly prompt Trump to say that the United States “opposes” rather than “does not support” Taiwan’s independence.
If that happens, it will be a departure from the language Washington has typically used to reflect its long-held policy of not taking a position on the island’s sovereignty.
U.S. allies and partners in Asia and elsewhere will be closely watching for any change in Washington’s approach to Taiwan, as it could mean that the Trump administration is less interested in the security of the Indo-Pacific region.
Beyond Iran and Taiwan, Trump and Xi are likely to address an array of economic issues from trade restrictions to China’s manufacturing overcapacity.
While any breakthrough in settling long-running disputes appears unlikely, U.S. officials have signaled that a number of major commercial deals will be sealed.
Trump is almost certain to highlight such accomplishments, possibly including a Chinese commitment to increase purchases of American farm products and Boeing aircraft.
Traveling with top executives of major American companies, including Tesla’s Elon Musk, Nvidia’s Jensen Huang, Apple’s Tim Cook and Boeing’s Kelly Ortberg, Trump’s team may formally agree with Beijing to create forums aimed at promoting trade in non-strategic goods and investment between the two countries.
