LONDON, April 21 (Xinhua) — Unusual trading has repeatedly occurred in financial markets ahead of major public statements by US President Donald Trump during his second term, raising concerns over possible insider trading, reported Xinhua, citing a BBC report on Monday.
According to the BBC report, an analysis of trading data across several markets found a pattern of spikes in trading volumes hours or even minutes before the president made market-moving remarks via social media or media interviews. These movements were often followed by sharp price fluctuations.
Analysts said the pattern bears the hallmarks of illegal insider trading, in which transactions are made based on non-public information. Some suggested that certain traders may have become more adept at anticipating the president’s policy signals.
The report cited several examples. In March, Trump indicated in a media interview that the conflict with Iran was “very complete, pretty much.” Dozens of minutes before the remarks became public, a surge of trades betting on falling oil prices was recorded. Prices then declined sharply after the comments were released.
Later that month, before a social media post by Trump referred to “productive” talks and a possible resolution of tensions, abnormal trading activity again appeared in oil markets, preceding a notable drop in prices.
In another case in April 2025, US stock markets surged after Trump announced a pause on certain tariff measures. Before the announcement, large volumes of trades had already been placed betting on a market rise, with some generating substantial profits.
The BBC report also noted that the recent growth of online predictions markets, where users speculate on geopolitical events, has also drawn scrutiny from observers. It cited a case involving Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, where an account placed bets in late December 2025 that he would be out of office by the end of January 2026. After Maduro was taken by force the following day, the account reportedly made substantial profits.
Experts noted that while insider trading is illegal under US law, enforcement remains difficult due to challenges in identifying information sources and gathering evidence.
“You can have massive trades on a financial instrument that clearly show that someone was privy to what Donald Trump was about to declare,” the report quoted Paul Oudin, a professor who specialises in financial regulation law at the ESSEC Business School, as saying.
“Yet there is a strong chance that no one will be prosecuted,” he added.
